The koruna weakens significantly after the NB’s decision on rates, but also in response to the press release of Governor Rusnok and ECB Lagardeov – Nach Welt

Weakened Krone started the decision to increase the basic rate by 0.75 percent, when the market found that it could increase one whole percentage point. Shku po Crown according to the cooled public forecast, which shows that e NB I am now at the top of the cycle of tightening policy. This signal was subsequently confirmed at the press conference by the governor NB Ji Rusnok. He said that if the assumptions of the forecast are met, the monetary policy will be tightened up as of the date of the deadline NB does not occur in this cycle. At this point, therefore, the increase in the base rate at the level of five and more percent is practically ruled out this year. On the contrary NB prepares the market for the start of lower stock rates in the second half of this year. Their increasing pressure on the weakening Krone.

Not to mention that e fka European Central Bankwhich today also decided on the setting of warehouses Rokovch Ratestuned to the day of the press conference a relative jestb that supports singing eur. Unlike in December, Christine Lagardeov, for example, did not say today that the basic rates EZB this year is highly unlikely. On the contrary, she repeated several times that e inflation is tiv society the problem that the markets have faced in such a way that another country wants to prepare for the need for inflation. The land of another man eurozny the state of rejections to the reform policy EZB. As a rule, they do not have a killer inflationon the contrary, they fear that the growth of the year will significantly increase the service of their sometimes enormous public debt.

Lagarde’s speech, of course, contributes to the current weakening Krone we Euro. In the next summer years will be Krone probably at weaker levels than today, when for the first time since 2011 it broke the level of 24.10 Euro. A break of 24.00 is unlikely this year. The course will be in psmo from 24.50 to 24.80.

Luke Kovanda, Ph.D.

Nrodn ekonomick rada vldy (NERV)

Chief Economist, Trinity Bank


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