OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 cases on downward trajectory; Pattern ‘come true’ – Archyworldys.com


January 20, 2022 | 8:40 a.m

MANILA, Philippines — The National Capital Region’s new COVID-19 cases have been on a downward trend for the past few days, with the recent declining pattern “come true,” independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said.

Of the 22,958 additional COVID-19 infections recorded Wednesday, 8,376 were from the National Capital Region, according to the Health Department’s daily case bulletin. Six test labs did not submit data to the DOH.

According to OCTA Research, Metro Manila’s reproductive rate — or the number of people a positive COVID-19 case can infect on average — fell to just 1.79 from as high as 4.24 last week.

“The last time the NCR had fewer than 10,000 cases in a day was exactly two weeks ago, on January 5, when the spike was accelerating,” OCTA research grantee Guido David said in a tweet Wednesday night.

“The pattern is very similar to the South African experience of a rapid spike followed by a dramatic drop in infections,” said David, a professor at the Institute of Mathematics UP Diliman.

OCTA added that both daily new cases and the seven-day moving average are trending down, while the weekly growth rate is down 10%.

Outside of Metro Manila, however, cases in other urbanized cities are increasing by the day.

“While growth rates at NCR Plus have slowed, they are still accelerating in many highly urbanized cities outside of NCR Plus,” said David, citing growth rates in cities such as Tacloban City (469%), Cebu City (378%) , Davao City (305%), Iloilo City (281%) and Baguio City (269%).

Previously, the research group said it was too early to conclude cases in the capital region were declining as the decline was still due to limited testing capacity. David said Wednesday night that the “pattern [is] come true.”

However, in Wednesday’s tally, 43.5% of 62,531 samples tested positive for COVID-19 on Jan. 17 — still well above the 5% threshold for the positivity rate set by the World Health Organization before economies opened up.

“While this is encouraging news, it must be emphasized that NCR remains at critical risk [average daily attack rate] and the positivity rate is still above the critical level,” David carefully emphasized.

“Residents are advised not to be complacent while still adhering strictly to minimum public health standards to avoid prolonging the rise in infections.”

Franco Luna with a report by Gaea Katreena Cabico

How it happens

LATEST UPDATE: Jan 16, 2022 – 10:25am

Follow this thread for updates on COVID-19 risk levels, safety measures and data from Metro Manila local government units.

Photo: Der STAR/Michael Varcas

January 16, 2022 – 10:25 am

According to OCTA Research, the daily growth rate in the National Capital Region has slipped to 2% from 3% the previous day.

OCTA research grantee Guido David says the capital region could be near the peak in new cases or the region may have reached its testing capacity limits.

Jan 13, 2022 – 9:57 am

The LRTA says it will implement the no vaccination, no ride/no entry policy starting Jan. 17.

Only vaccinated passengers may drive the LRT-2 and must provide proof of vaccination.

Jan 12, 2022 – 10:47 am

The Department of Transportation has issued an executive order banning unvaccinated people from using public transportation in Metro Manila while the capital region is under Level 3 Alert.

“All concerned affiliated agencies and sector offices of the DOTr are instructed to ensure that public transport operators only allow access or issue tickets to ‘fully vaccinated individuals’ as evidenced by a physical or digital copy of a copy issued by an LGU (Local Government Unit). will have vaccination card or IATF required document with valid government-issued photo ID and address,” it said.

Jan 6, 2022 – 4:29 p.m

Tourism Minister Bernadette Romulo-Puyat says she is in isolation after being recently exposed to a COVID-19 positive person.

Jan 5, 2022 – 12:43 p.m

The government must ensure supplies of basic drugs like paracetamol as there are reports people are struggling to access them, Akbayan’s party list said on Wednesday

“A acetaminophen deficiency is another bitter pill not to be swallowed by the public,” says Dr. RJ Naguit, second candidate on the party list, in a press release.

The government has downplayed the reported shortage, saying supplies are adequate according to its monitoring. It said only certain brands of paracetamol were out of stock in pharmacies.

“In the past two years, people have swallowed too many bitter pills in the form of strict lockdowns, lack of mass testing and inadequate ayuda. And after all our sacrifices, what do we get? We’re entering the third year of the pandemic with hardly any acetaminophen pills to swallow,” Naguit says, adding that failure to ensure stable stocks of basic drugs would reduce trust in the government.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.