The US is “closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,” said a member of a key CIA advisory body.

Photo: John Minchillo / AP

© Provided by The Guardian
Photo: John Minchillo / AP

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The analysis of Barbara F Walter, Professor of Political Science at the University of California at San Diego, who on the Political Instability Task Force, is contained in a book to appear next year and reported for the first time from the Washington Post.

Three retired generals at the same time wrote in the post that they are “increasingly concerned about the consequences of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for deadly chaos in our military”.

Such concerns grow given the rugged political divisions deepened by former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept defeat in the 2020 elections.

Trump’s lie that his loss to Joe Biden was due to electoral fraud fueled them Deadly attack on the US Capitol on January 6, after which Trump was charged a second time and acquitted, allowing him to run freely for office.

The “big lie” also fuels efforts by Republicans to restrict voting by groups that are democratically oriented and to facilitate the cancellation of elections.

Such movements persist without counters from democrats hindered by the filibuster, the Senate rule that requires a super-majority for most laws.

Although Republican presidential candidates have won the referendum only once since 1988, the GOP has, through political hardball, populated the Supreme Court with Conservatives who outnumber the Liberals 6-3.

All of these factors and more, including a pandemic that has fueled Resistance to the government, contributed to Walter’s analysis.

Last month she did tweeted: “The CIA actually has a task force that is supposed to try to predict where and when political instability and conflict are likely to break out around the world. It is just not allowed to look to the US. That means we are blind to the risk factors that quickly pop up here. “

The book in which Walter examines these risk factors in the USA, How civil wars begin, will be released in January. According to the Post, she writes, “Nobody wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline or is heading for war.

But “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America – just as you were looking at events in Ukraine, Ivory Coast or Venezuela – you’d go through a checklist and evaluate each of the conditions that cause civil war.” probably”.

“And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”

video/AARVmvZ”>Video: Trump in 2019: Jewish Americans Who Vote Democratically Are “Israel Disloyal” (The Washington Post)

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Trump in 2019: Jewish Americans who vote democratically are “Israel disloyal”

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Walter, according to the Post, concludes that the US has gone through periods of “pre-insurrection” and “incipient conflict” and may now be in an “open conflict” beginning with the Capitol insurrection.

Citing analyzes carried out by the. be used Center for Systemic Peace, Walter also says that the US has become an “anocracy” – “somewhere between democracy and an autocratic state”.

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The United States waged a civil war from 1861 to 1865 against states that split off to maintain slavery.

Estimates of the death toll vary. The American Battlefield Trust puts it at 620,000 and says: “Measured against today’s population, the number would have risen to up to 6 million souls.”

Sidney Blumenthal, a former Clinton adviser who became the biographer of Abraham Lincoln, and Guardian Contributor, said, “The secessionists in 1861 accepted Lincoln’s election as fair and legitimate.”

The current situation, he said, “is the opposite. Trump’s questioning of the election … has led to a real legitimacy crisis. “

With Republicans holding the levers of power while in the minority of the electorate, Blumenthal said, “This crisis is metastasizing over time across the system, so it is possible that any tight election could be labeled false and fraudulent . ”

Blumenthal said he did not expect the US to rush into open “section against section” civil war and raising armies.

If right-wing militia groups tried to mimick the secessionists of the 1860s and tried to “occupy federal forts and offices by force,” he said, “I think you would have some confidence that it would be over very, very quickly”. [given] a very strong and firm sense at the top of the US military for its constitutional, non-political role.

“… But, given the proliferation of weapons, there could be any number of seemingly arbitrary acts of violence from these organized militias that are truly vigilante groups and partisan agendas, and we have not yet entered that stage.

“The real nightmare would be a low-intensity conflict.”

Members of the Oath Keepers, an extreme right-wing group, on the Eastern Front of the US Capitol on January 6th.  Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

© Provided by The Guardian
Members of the Oath Keepers, an extreme right-wing group, on the Eastern Front of the US Capitol on January 6th. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

The retired generals that warned the conflicts over the next election – Paul Eaton, Antonio Taguba and Steven Anderson – were less confident about the army.

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“As we are on the first anniversary of the deadly uprising In the US Capitol, “they wrote,” we are … increasingly concerned about the consequences of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for deadly chaos within our military that would seriously endanger all Americans.

“In short, we are frozen to the bone when we think about the next coup.”

Citing the presence of “a disturbing number of veterans and active military personnel” at the Capitol riot, they pointed out that “more than one in ten defendants” had an ID card“.

Polls have revealed similar concerns and warnings. In November, the Public Religion Research Institute asked voters if they would agree with a statement: “Because things have gotten so off track, true American patriots may need to resort to violence to save our country.”

The survey found that 18% of the respondents agreed. For Republicans, however, it was 30%.

Walter thanked the Post on Twitter for reporting on her book. they also said: “I wish I had better news for the world, but I couldn’t stay silent when I knew what I know.”

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