Models advertise with “enough chill” to send the natural gas futures up earlier – Nach Welt

Natural gas futures rose in early Monday trading as cooler forecasts over the weekend bolstered expectations for heating demand later this month. After an 11.1-cent rally in the Friday session, the Nymex contract rose another 9.8 cents to $ 4.023 / MMBtu around 8:50 a.m. ET in January.

Colder changes to the forecast gave the impetus to push natural gas futures back above $ 4 in early trading, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“The weekend weather models have shifted a little colder and show enough cold in the pattern to bring demand closer to normal in the second half of the month,” Bespoke told customers early Monday. “This is the move we have been looking for and the price reaction. From here the key will be to see if we can take the next step towards an actually colder pattern, which is possible. “

This is due to a “healthy lock signature” from the North Atlantic Oscillation region, but “a lot depends on the Pacific side, so we prefer a more neutral view for now,” added Bespoke. With prices back above $ 4, the company said it preferred to “wait and see where the models go next”.

The EBW Analytics Group estimated a 27 billion cubic foot increase in weather-related demand in the second upcoming week of storage (ending December 23) based on model changes over the weekend.

A higher weather-related demand for the next three storage weeks is likely to cause prices to rise in the next seven to ten days, even if “extremely mild temperatures” dampen spot market demand for a short time and “could initially limit the upside potential,” said EBW senior analyst Eli Rubin .

“The main meteorological driver is the increase in arctic air over western and central Canada,” said Rubin. “While timing uncertainties remain as the 11-15 day window is likely to get colder, the nascent natural gas recovery rally will continue to expand,” said Rubin.

Meanwhile, demand for liquefied natural gas feed gas hit 12.4 Bcf / d over the weekend, an increase of 1.2 billion.

“Sabine Pass could increase demand by 0.5 billion cubic feet per day from the current level as Train 6 continues, which solidifies the fundamental outlook for the end of the month,” said the analyst.

From a technical standpoint, the natural gas bulls built on a “small win” early Monday in Friday’s session as they pushed prices above the 200-day moving average on a closing basis, according to ICAP Technical Analysis analyst Brian LaRose .

The next task for the bulls “will be to cut off the ratio retracements associated with the October / November highs,” LaRose said.

January crude oil futures fell 24 cents to $ 71.43 / bbl around 8:50 a.m. ET.

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