Negotiations on the Iran deal continue, but little hope of a breakthrough – archyde

The restoration of the controls will be the main topic of conversation in Vienna, believes the political scientist Sara Mehrinejad. “But the ball lies with Iran: They will have to show that they want to talk seriously. If they really want a nuclear weapon, the controls are not in their best interests. ”

Was will Amerika?

In the first place: a seat at the negotiating table. According to the Biden administration, Trump’s crackdown backfired: The Iranians have cut back more and are less willing to talk. Imposing additional sanctions, according to this government, is not the way to get Iran to change course, although it is not entirely excluded. “It’s ironic: Biden promises to go the diplomatic route but threatens to increase the pressure if Iran doesn’t listen,” said Golriz.

The US doesn’t want to make too many concessions. Iran will not speak to America again until all 1,500 Trump-era sanctions are lifted. Biden also has to promise that the US will never leave the treaty again. Biden doesn’t want to go that far: He wants to uphold sanctions related to human rights and terrorism, and he sees few promises.

The Americans seem to realize, therefore, that a direct return to the agreement is not an option. The idea of ​​a Interim contract between Iran and Israel. The chance of this is slim, too: Israel and Iran regularly carry out cyber attacks against each other.

What does Iran want?

Iran got a new government this year under the leadership of Ebrahim Raisi. He just seems less interested in diplomacy. “Raisi wasn’t even present at the talks with the UN atomic agency,” said Mehrinejad. “I don’t think he actually wants to take part in the UN checks, and that could lead to problems in Vienna.”

Iran is not talking about nuclear negotiations either: the chief negotiator calls them “talks to lift sanctions”. According to Mehrinejad, an improvement in financial relations would have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the rial, the Iranian currency. “In order to maintain the regime, the economy has to be stable. That requires a better relationship with the West, and Raisi knows that too. It’s two different things. “

The question is whether Iran will give up nuclear capacity for this. “The most important thing for Iran is the influence in the region,” says Golriz. “Selling oil makes money, so I don’t think lifting the sanctions is reason enough to give in. It is more important to limit western influence. “

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